Tay Ninh 1–0 Dong Thap: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Tay Ninh

FT

1 – 0

Dong Thap

10/13/2020

V.League 2 · Relegation Round - 2Sân vận động Tây Nin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tay Ninh57%

×Draw28%

Dong Thap15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tay NinhExpected goals in this matchDong Thap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.55

Tay Ninh

1.38

Dong Thap

0.55

Tay Ninh creates 151% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

1.38

creates per match

0.60

0.50

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tay Ninh

1.38

Dong Thap

0.60

allows per match

Tay Ninh

0.50

Dong Thap

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tay Ninh ↓

Dong Thap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tay Ninh or draw

85%

Tay Ninh or Dong Thap

72%

Draw or Dong Thap

43%

Winning margin

Tay Ninh wins by 2+

29%

Dong Thap wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tay Ninh 1+ goals

75%

Tay Ninh 2+ goals

40%

Tay Ninh 3+ goals

16%

Dong Thap 1+ goals

42%

Dong Thap 2+ goals

11%

Dong Thap 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tay Ninh (draw refunded)

80%

Dong Thap (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tay Ninh at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tay Ninh attack 1.38 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Tay Ninh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tay Ninh scores more

57%

level

28%

Dong Thap scores more

15%

Tay Ninh at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tay Ninh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff