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Dong Thap vs Tay Ninh — Cup 2019

Dong Thap
Dong Thap
FT
3 – 4
Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
3/29/2019CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động Cao Lãnh (Cao Lanh Stadium) (Cao Lãnh (Cao Lanh))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dong Thap61%
×Draw17%
Tay Ninh22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dong Thap
2.83
Tay Ninh
1.67

Dong Thap creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dong Thap
2.33
Tay Ninh
1.67

allows per match

Dong Thap
1.67
Tay Ninh
3.33

finishing

Dong Thap+0.00on par
Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Thap ↓

Tay Ninh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Dong Thap or draw
78%
Dong Thap or Tay Ninh
83%
Draw or Tay Ninh
39%

Winning margin

Dong Thap wins by 2+
41%
Tay Ninh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dong Thap 1+ goals
94%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
77%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
53%
Tay Ninh 1+ goals
81%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
50%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dong Thap (draw refunded)
74%
Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Thap at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Tay Ninh away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Thap attack 2.33 + Tay Ninh defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Tay Ninh attack 1.67 + Dong Thap defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dong Thap scores more
61%
level
17%
Tay Ninh scores more
22%

Dong Thap at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dong Thap vs Tay Ninh

Tay Ninh beat Dong Thap 4-3 in Cup on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cao Lãnh (Cao Lanh Stadium) (Cao Lãnh (Cao Lanh)).