Tavriya 3–0 Avanhard II: Result & Stats

Tavriya

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avanhard II

9/4/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 7Stadion Mashynobudivnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tavriya61%

×Draw21%

Avanhard II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TavriyaExpected goals in this matchAvanhard II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.94

Tavriya

1.96

Avanhard II

0.94

Tavriya creates 109% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

1.52

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Tavriya

1.52

Avanhard II

0.90

allows per match

Tavriya

0.97

Avanhard II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tavriya+0.00on par

Avanhard II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tavriya ↓

Avanhard II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tavriya or draw

82%

Tavriya or Avanhard II

79%

Draw or Avanhard II

39%

Winning margin

Tavriya wins by 2+

37%

Avanhard II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tavriya 1+ goals

86%

Tavriya 2+ goals

58%

Tavriya 3+ goals

31%

Avanhard II 1+ goals

61%

Avanhard II 2+ goals

24%

Avanhard II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tavriya (draw refunded)

78%

Avanhard II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tavriya at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Avanhard II away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tavriya attack 1.52 + Avanhard II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.96

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Tavriya defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tavriya scores more

61%

level

21%

Avanhard II scores more

18%

Tavriya at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tavriya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff