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Avanhard II vs Tavriya — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Avanhard II
Avanhard II
FT
3 – 0
Tavriya
Tavriya
11/18/2019Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 18Al-Nahyan Stadium (Abū ẓabī (Abu Dhabi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Avanhard II34%
×Draw27%
Tavriya39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avanhard II
1.21
Tavriya
1.33

Tavriya creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

creates per match

Avanhard II
0.90
Tavriya
1.26

allows per match

Avanhard II
1.40
Tavriya
1.52

finishing

Avanhard II+0.00on par
Tavriya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avanhard II ↓

Tavriya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Avanhard II or draw
61%
Avanhard II or Tavriya
73%
Draw or Tavriya
66%

Winning margin

Avanhard II wins by 2+
14%
Tavriya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Avanhard II 1+ goals
70%
Avanhard II 2+ goals
34%
Avanhard II 3+ goals
12%
Tavriya 1+ goals
74%
Tavriya 2+ goals
38%
Tavriya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Avanhard II (draw refunded)
46%
Tavriya (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avanhard II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Tavriya away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Tavriya defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tavriya attack 1.26 + Avanhard II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avanhard II scores more
34%
level
27%
Tavriya scores more
39%

Tavriya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tavriya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group B: Avanhard II 3–0 Tavriya

Avanhard II beat Tavriya 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group B on November 18, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Nahyan Stadium (Abū ẓabī (Abu Dhabi)).