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Tauras vs Šiauliai — Cup 2020

Tauras
Tauras
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Šiauliai
Šiauliaiadvanced
5/7/2024CupCup · Round of 32Vytauto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tauras19%
×Draw19%
Šiauliai63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauras
1.25
Šiauliai
2.42

Šiauliai creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Tauras
1.33
Šiauliai
2.00

allows per match

Tauras
2.83
Šiauliai
1.17

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Tauras or draw
37%
Tauras or Šiauliai
81%
Draw or Šiauliai
81%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+
7%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals
71%
Tauras 2+ goals
36%
Tauras 3+ goals
13%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
91%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
69%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)
23%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 1.33 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Šiauliai attack 2.00 + Tauras defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tauras scores more
19%
level
19%
Šiauliai scores more
63%

Šiauliai at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tauras 0–4 Šiauliai

Šiauliai beat Tauras 4-0 in Cup on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Vytauto stadionas in Tauragė.