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Šiauliai vs Tauras — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
2 – 0
Tauras
Tauras
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Šiauliai34%
×Draw29%
Tauras37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
1.10
Tauras
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
1.20
Tauras
1.33

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.00
Tauras
1.00

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Tauras+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Tauras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
63%
Šiauliai or Tauras
71%
Draw or Tauras
66%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
14%
Tauras wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
67%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
30%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
10%
Tauras 1+ goals
69%
Tauras 2+ goals
33%
Tauras 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
48%
Tauras (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Tauras away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.20 + Tauras defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tauras attack 1.33 + Šiauliai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Šiauliai scores more
34%
level
29%
Tauras scores more
37%

Tauras at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šiauliai vs Tauras

Šiauliai beat Tauras 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.