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Tauras vs Hegelmann II — 1 Lyga 2026

Tauras
Tauras
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
3/23/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tauras65%
×Draw20%
Hegelmann II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauras
2.16
Hegelmann II
0.94

Tauras creates 130% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tauras
2.19
Hegelmann II
1.11

allows per match

Tauras
0.76
Hegelmann II
2.13

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par
Hegelmann II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Hegelmann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tauras or draw
85%
Tauras or Hegelmann II
80%
Draw or Hegelmann II
35%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+
41%
Hegelmann II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals
88%
Tauras 2+ goals
63%
Tauras 3+ goals
36%
Hegelmann II 1+ goals
61%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
24%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)
81%
Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Hegelmann II away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 2.19 + Hegelmann II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.16

Hegelmann II attack 1.11 + Tauras defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tauras scores more
65%
level
20%
Hegelmann II scores more
15%

Tauras at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Tauras 1–1 Hegelmann II

Tauras and Hegelmann II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Tauragė.