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Hegelmann II vs Tauras — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tauras
Tauras
8/17/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hegelmann II28%
×Draw25%
Tauras47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann II
1.16
Tauras
1.57

Tauras creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hegelmann II
1.24
Tauras
1.50

allows per match

Hegelmann II
1.65
Tauras
1.08

finishing

Hegelmann II+0.00on par
Tauras+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann II ↓

Tauras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hegelmann II or draw
53%
Hegelmann II or Tauras
75%
Draw or Tauras
72%

Winning margin

Hegelmann II wins by 2+
11%
Tauras wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hegelmann II 1+ goals
69%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
32%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
11%
Tauras 1+ goals
79%
Tauras 2+ goals
46%
Tauras 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
38%
Tauras (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann II at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Tauras away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann II attack 1.24 + Tauras defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tauras attack 1.50 + Hegelmann II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hegelmann II scores more
28%
level
25%
Tauras scores more
47%

Tauras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Hegelmann II 3–3 Tauras

Hegelmann II and Tauras drew 3-3 in 1 Lyga on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.