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Taubaté U20 vs CA Joseense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Taubaté U20
Taubaté U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CA Joseense U20
CA Joseense U20
Joao Pedro 90' (OG)
K. Monteiro 71'
L. Andre 38'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Taubaté U2042%
×Draw23%
CA Joseense U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taubaté U20
1.67
CA Joseense U20
1.51

Taubaté U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Taubaté U20
1.13
CA Joseense U20
1.40

allows per match

Taubaté U20
1.63
CA Joseense U20
2.20

finishing

Taubaté U20+0.00on par
CA Joseense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taubaté U20 ↓

CA Joseense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Taubaté U20 or draw
65%
Taubaté U20 or CA Joseense U20
77%
Draw or CA Joseense U20
58%

Winning margin

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+
21%
CA Joseense U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Taubaté U20 1+ goals
81%
Taubaté U20 2+ goals
50%
Taubaté U20 3+ goals
23%
CA Joseense U20 1+ goals
78%
CA Joseense U20 2+ goals
44%
CA Joseense U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)
54%
CA Joseense U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taubaté U20 at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

CA Joseense U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + CA Joseense U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

CA Joseense U20 attack 1.40 + Taubaté U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Taubaté U20 scores more
42%
level
23%
CA Joseense U20 scores more
35%

Taubaté U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Taubaté U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
L. Andre
71'
K. Monteiro
90'
Joao PedroOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taubaté U20 vs CA Joseense U20

Taubaté U20 beat CA Joseense U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: L. Andre (38'), K. Monteiro (71'), Joao Pedro (90' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho in Taubaté, São Paulo.