CA Joseense U20 5–4 Taubaté U20: Result & Stats

CA Joseense U20

FT

5 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Taubaté U20

G. R. Ikaro 90'

J. Henrique 89'

L. Andre 83'

B. Felipe 64'

Adrian 14'

Maycon 80', 54'

A. Zumckeller 44'

P. Jobson 22'

5/10/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Centro Esportivo João do Pulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Joseense U2060%

×Draw18%

Taubaté U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA Joseense U20Expected goals in this matchTaubaté U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.56

CA Joseense U20

2.63

Taubaté U20

1.56

CA Joseense U20 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

2.80

creates per match

1.13

2.00

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

CA Joseense U20

2.80

Taubaté U20

1.13

allows per match

CA Joseense U20

2.00

Taubaté U20

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Joseense U20+0.00on par

Taubaté U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Joseense U20 ↓

Taubaté U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

CA Joseense U20 or draw

78%

CA Joseense U20 or Taubaté U20

82%

Draw or Taubaté U20

40%

Winning margin

CA Joseense U20 wins by 2+

39%

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CA Joseense U20 1+ goals

93%

CA Joseense U20 2+ goals

73%

CA Joseense U20 3+ goals

48%

Taubaté U20 1+ goals

79%

Taubaté U20 2+ goals

46%

Taubaté U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

CA Joseense U20 (draw refunded)

73%

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Joseense U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Taubaté U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Joseense U20 attack 2.80 + Taubaté U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.63

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + CA Joseense U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CA Joseense U20 scores more

60%

level

18%

Taubaté U20 scores more

22%

CA Joseense U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CA Joseense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Adrian

22'

P. Jobson

44'

A. Zumckeller

54'

Maycon

64'

B. Felipe

80'

Maycon

83'

L. Andre

89'

J. Henrique

90'

G. R. Ikaro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff