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Tatran Všechovice vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
6/15/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 30Stadion TJ Sokol Ústí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tatran Všechovice55%
×Draw21%
Nový Jičín25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Všechovice
2.20
Nový Jičín
1.42

Tatran Všechovice creates 55% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tatran Všechovice
2.07
Nový Jičín
1.07

allows per match

Tatran Všechovice
1.76
Nový Jičín
2.33

finishing

Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Všechovice ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tatran Všechovice or draw
75%
Tatran Všechovice or Nový Jičín
79%
Draw or Nový Jičín
45%

Winning margin

Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
33%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
89%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
64%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
37%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
76%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
41%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
69%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Všechovice at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.76 · 82 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Všechovice attack 2.07 + Nový Jičín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

Nový Jičín attack 1.07 + Tatran Všechovice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tatran Všechovice scores more
55%
level
21%
Nový Jičín scores more
25%

Tatran Všechovice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tatran Všechovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Tatran Všechovice 4–1 Nový Jičín

Tatran Všechovice beat Nový Jičín 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Ústí in Ústí.