Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nový Jičín vs Tatran Všechovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 15UMT Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nový Jičín38%
×Draw22%
Tatran Všechovice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nový Jičín
1.72
Tatran Všechovice
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Nový Jičín
0.93
Tatran Všechovice
1.76

allows per match

Nový Jičín
1.80
Tatran Všechovice
2.51

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par
Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Tatran Všechovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw
60%
Nový Jičín or Tatran Všechovice
78%
Draw or Tatran Všechovice
62%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+
19%
Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals
82%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
51%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
25%
Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
83%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
53%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
48%
Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Tatran Všechovice away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.51 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 0.93 + Tatran Všechovice defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tatran Všechovice attack 1.76 + Nový Jičín defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nový Jičín scores more
38%
level
22%
Tatran Všechovice scores more
40%

Tatran Všechovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tatran Všechovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nový Jičín vs Tatran Všechovice

Nový Jičín and Tatran Všechovice drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at UMT Nový Jičín in Nový Jičín.