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Tatran Sedlčany vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
FT
0 – 6
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
8/15/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 3Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany31%
×Draw21%
Sokol Lom48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Sedlčany
1.67
Sokol Lom
2.09

Sokol Lom creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany
1.88
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany
2.16
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw
52%
Tatran Sedlčany or Sokol Lom
79%
Draw or Sokol Lom
69%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
15%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
81%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
50%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
23%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
88%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
62%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
40%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more
31%
level
21%
Sokol Lom scores more
48%

Sokol Lom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Tatran Sedlčany 0–6 Sokol Lom

Sokol Lom beat Tatran Sedlčany 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany in Sedlčany.