Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Lom vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
3/26/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sokol Lom77%
×Draw14%
Tatran Sedlčany10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
3.02
Tatran Sedlčany
1.02

Sokol Lom creates 196% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
90%
Sokol Lom or Tatran Sedlčany
86%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
23%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
57%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
95%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
80%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
57%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
64%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
27%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
89%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 3.02

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
77%
level
14%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
10%

Sokol Lom at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Lom 2 – 0 Tatran Sedlčany

Sokol Lom beat Tatran Sedlčany 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.