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Tatran Sedlčany vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
FT
3 – 2
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/6/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 9Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany (Sedlčany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany19%
×Draw18%
Přeštice63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Sedlčany
1.38
Přeštice
2.60

Přeštice creates 88% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany
1.88
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany
2.16
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw
37%
Tatran Sedlčany or Přeštice
82%
Draw or Přeštice
81%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
8%
Přeštice wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
75%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
40%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
16%
Přeštice 1+ goals
92%
Přeštice 2+ goals
73%
Přeštice 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
23%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.38

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more
19%
level
18%
Přeštice scores more
63%

Přeštice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Tatran Sedlčany 3–2 Přeštice

Tatran Sedlčany beat Přeštice 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany (Sedlčany).