Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Přeštice vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
15:00
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
5/15/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 24Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice82%
×Draw11%
Tatran Sedlčany7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
3.20
Tatran Sedlčany
0.85

Přeštice creates 276% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
93%
Přeštice or Tatran Sedlčany
89%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
18%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
64%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
96%
Přeštice 2+ goals
82%
Přeštice 3+ goals
60%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
57%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
21%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
92%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 3.20

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Přeštice scores more
82%
level
11%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
7%

Přeštice at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice face Tatran Sedlčany (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Přeštice hosting Tatran Sedlčany. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Přeštice host Tatran Sedlčany at Stadion Přeštice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.