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Tatran Sedlčany vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
CANC
15:00
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
4/25/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 13UMT Sedlčany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany44%
×Draw21%
Mariánské Lázně35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Sedlčany
2.06
Mariánské Lázně
1.83

Tatran Sedlčany creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany
1.88
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany
2.16
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw
65%
Tatran Sedlčany or Mariánské Lázně
79%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
56%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
25%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
87%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
61%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
34%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
84%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
54%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
56%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.06

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more
44%
level
21%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
35%

Tatran Sedlčany at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tatran Sedlčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tatran Sedlčany host Mariánské Lázně

April 25, 2021: Tatran Sedlčany take on Mariánské Lázně in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tatran Sedlčany host Mariánské Lázně at UMT Sedlčany.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.