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Mariánské Lázně vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
CANC
15:00
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
6/12/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 28Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mariánské Lázně64%
×Draw18%
Tatran Sedlčany18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariánské Lázně
2.60
Tatran Sedlčany
1.35

Mariánské Lázně creates 93% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.82
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Mariánské Lázně
1.58
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariánské Lázně ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Mariánské Lázně or draw
82%
Mariánské Lázně or Tatran Sedlčany
82%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
36%

Winning margin

Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
43%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
92%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
73%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
47%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
74%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
39%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
78%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariánské Lázně at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.82 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.60

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Mariánské Lázně defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mariánské Lázně scores more
64%
level
18%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
18%

Mariánské Lázně at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mariánské Lázně will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mariánské Lázně face Tatran Sedlčany (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Mariánské Lázně hosting Tatran Sedlčany. Match starts June 12, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mariánské Lázně host Tatran Sedlčany at Stadion FC Viktoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.