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Tatran Sedlčany vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
FT
2 – 1
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
9/1/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 4Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany (Sedlčany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany53%
×Draw20%
Hvězda Cheb27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Sedlčany
2.33
Hvězda Cheb
1.65

Tatran Sedlčany creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany
1.88
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany
2.16
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw
73%
Tatran Sedlčany or Hvězda Cheb
80%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
47%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
32%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
90%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
67%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
41%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
81%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
49%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
66%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more
53%
level
20%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
27%

Tatran Sedlčany at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tatran Sedlčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Sedlčany vs Hvězda Cheb

Tatran Sedlčany beat Hvězda Cheb 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Mestský stadion TJ Tatran Sedlčany (Sedlčany).