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Hvězda Cheb vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
6/11/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Hvězda Cheb59%
×Draw19%
Tatran Sedlčany22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
2.45
Tatran Sedlčany
1.43

Hvězda Cheb creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
78%
Hvězda Cheb or Tatran Sedlčany
81%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
41%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
38%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
91%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
70%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
44%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
76%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
42%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
73%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.45

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
59%
level
19%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
22%

Hvězda Cheb at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Hvězda Cheb 5–0 Tatran Sedlčany

Hvězda Cheb beat Tatran Sedlčany 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiva in Cheb.