Tatran Sedlčany vs Český lev - Union Beroun

Tatran Sedlčany

CANC

15:00

Český lev - Union Beroun

5/9/2021

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 15UMT Sedlčany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tatran Sedlčany59%

×Draw19%

Český lev - Union Beroun22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran SedlčanyExpected goals in this matchČeský lev - Union Beroun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.46

Tatran Sedlčany

2.44

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.46

Tatran Sedlčany creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.88

creates per match

0.76

2.16

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Tatran Sedlčany

1.88

Český lev - Union Beroun

0.76

allows per match

Tatran Sedlčany

2.16

Český lev - Union Beroun

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Sedlčany ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Tatran Sedlčany or draw

78%

Tatran Sedlčany or Český lev - Union Beroun

81%

Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun

41%

Winning margin

Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+

38%

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals

91%

Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals

70%

Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals

43%

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals

77%

Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals

43%

Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)

72%

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Sedlčany at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.88 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tatran Sedlčany scores more

59%

level

19%

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more

22%

Tatran Sedlčany at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tatran Sedlčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff