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Český lev - Union Beroun vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
FT
4 – 1
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
10/2/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 10Fotbalové hřiště Beroun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun54%
×Draw20%
Tatran Sedlčany26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.34
Tatran Sedlčany
1.58

Český lev - Union Beroun creates 48% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
74%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Tatran Sedlčany
80%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
46%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
34%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
90%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
67%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
41%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
79%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
47%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
68%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.34

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
54%
level
20%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
26%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Český lev - Union Beroun vs Tatran Sedlčany

Český lev - Union Beroun beat Tatran Sedlčany 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Beroun in Beroun.