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Tatran Rakovník vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
9/6/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník24%
×Draw19%
Olympie Březová57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.54
Olympie Březová
2.43

Olympie Březová creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
43%
Tatran Rakovník or Olympie Březová
81%
Draw or Olympie Březová
76%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
11%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
79%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
45%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
20%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
91%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
69%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
30%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
24%
level
19%
Olympie Březová scores more
57%

Olympie Březová at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Tatran Rakovník 1–1 Olympie Březová

Tatran Rakovník and Olympie Březová drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník in Rakovník.