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Olympie Březová vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
3/26/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 18UMT Sokolov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Olympie Březová64%
×Draw18%
Tatran Rakovník18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympie Březová
2.58
Tatran Rakovník
1.34

Olympie Březová creates 93% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 24 away

creates per match

Olympie Březová
1.79
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Olympie Březová
1.94
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Olympie Březová+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympie Březová ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Olympie Březová or draw
82%
Olympie Březová or Tatran Rakovník
82%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
36%

Winning margin

Olympie Březová wins by 2+
42%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olympie Březová 1+ goals
92%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
72%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
47%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
74%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
39%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
77%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympie Březová at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.94 · 80 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympie Březová attack 1.79 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.58

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Olympie Březová defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Olympie Březová scores more
64%
level
18%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
18%

Olympie Březová at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympie Březová vs Tatran Rakovník

Olympie Březová beat Tatran Rakovník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at UMT Sokolov in Sokolov.