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Tatran Rakovník vs Brandýs nad Labem — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
4/15/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 21Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tatran Rakovník20%
×Draw19%
Brandýs nad Labem61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Rakovník
1.35
Brandýs nad Labem
2.44

Brandýs nad Labem creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tatran Rakovník
0.78
Brandýs nad Labem
1.41

allows per match

Tatran Rakovník
3.48
Brandýs nad Labem
1.92

finishing

Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par
Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Rakovník ↓

Brandýs nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tatran Rakovník or draw
39%
Tatran Rakovník or Brandýs nad Labem
81%
Draw or Brandýs nad Labem
80%

Winning margin

Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
8%
Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
74%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
39%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
15%
Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
91%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
70%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
25%
Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Rakovník at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

Brandýs nad Labem away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.92 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.78 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.41 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tatran Rakovník scores more
20%
level
19%
Brandýs nad Labem scores more
61%

Brandýs nad Labem at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brandýs nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tatran Rakovník 2 – 5 Brandýs nad Labem

Brandýs nad Labem beat Tatran Rakovník 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadion TJ Tatran Rakovník in Rakovník.