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Brandýs nad Labem vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
FT
3 – 0
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
9/4/20214. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 6Na Spořilově

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brandýs nad Labem69%
×Draw17%
Tatran Rakovník15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brandýs nad Labem
2.67
Tatran Rakovník
1.17

Brandýs nad Labem creates 128% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

creates per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.97
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.58
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brandýs nad Labem ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brandýs nad Labem or draw
85%
Brandýs nad Labem or Tatran Rakovník
83%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
31%

Winning margin

Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
47%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
93%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
74%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
49%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
69%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
33%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
82%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brandýs nad Labem at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.97 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.67

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Brandýs nad Labem scores more
69%
level
17%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
15%

Brandýs nad Labem at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Brandýs nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Brandýs nad Labem 3–0 Tatran Rakovník

Brandýs nad Labem beat Tatran Rakovník 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Na Spořilově in Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav.