Tatran Prešov vs Spišská Nová Ves

Tatran Prešov

CANC

14:30

Spišská Nová Ves

5/9/2021

3. liga - East · East - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Prešov63%

×Draw20%

Spišská Nová Ves18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran PrešovExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.09

Tatran Prešov

2.23

Spišská Nová Ves

1.09

Tatran Prešov creates 105% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 64 away

3.55

creates per match

1.73

0.45

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Tatran Prešov

3.55

Spišská Nová Ves

1.73

allows per match

Tatran Prešov

0.45

Spišská Nová Ves

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw

82%

Tatran Prešov or Spišská Nová Ves

80%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

37%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

40%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

89%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

65%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

38%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

66%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

30%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

78%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more

63%

level

20%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

18%

Tatran Prešov at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff