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Spišská Nová Ves vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
5/14/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 25Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves40%
×Draw22%
Tatran Prešov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
1.86
Tatran Prešov
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
2.56
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
0.88
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
61%
Spišská Nová Ves or Tatran Prešov
78%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
60%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
21%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
84%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
55%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
28%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
84%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
54%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
51%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 2.56 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
40%
level
22%
Tatran Prešov scores more
39%

Spišská Nová Ves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Spišská Nová Ves 2–2 Tatran Prešov

Spišská Nová Ves and Tatran Prešov drew 2-2 in 3. liga - East on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.