Tatran Prešov vs Slavoj Trebišov

Tatran Prešov

CANC

13:00

Slavoj Trebišov

2/14/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tatran Prešov82%

×Draw12%

Slavoj Trebišov7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran PrešovExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.05

0.78

Tatran Prešov

3.05

Slavoj Trebišov

0.78

Tatran Prešov creates 291% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.60

creates per match

0.75

0.80

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Tatran Prešov

2.60

Slavoj Trebišov

0.75

allows per match

Tatran Prešov

0.80

Slavoj Trebišov

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw

93%

Tatran Prešov or Slavoj Trebišov

88%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

18%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

63%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

95%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

80%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

57%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

54%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

18%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

92%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 2.60 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.05

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.75 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more

82%

level

12%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

7%

Tatran Prešov at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff