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Slavoj Trebišov vs Tatran Prešov — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
10/14/20232. liga2. liga · Round 12Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov33%
×Draw26%
Tatran Prešov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.23
Tatran Prešov
1.39

Tatran Prešov creates 13% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 43 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Tatran Prešov
1.51

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Tatran Prešov
1.02

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
59%
Slavoj Trebišov or Tatran Prešov
74%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
67%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
14%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
71%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
35%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
13%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
75%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
40%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
45%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tatran Prešov attack 1.51 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
33%
level
26%
Tatran Prešov scores more
41%

Tatran Prešov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slavoj Trebišov 0–1 Tatran Prešov

Tatran Prešov beat Slavoj Trebišov 1-0 in 2. liga on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.