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Tatran Prešov vs Rudňany — 3. liga - East 2020

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
7 – 2
Rudňany
Rudňany
8/21/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 5FC Pivovar Šariš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tatran Prešov88%
×Draw8%
Rudňany4%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
3.77
Rudňany
0.79

Tatran Prešov creates 377% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
3.55
Rudňany
1.13

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.45
Rudňany
4.00

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Rudňany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
96%
Tatran Prešov or Rudňany
92%
Draw or Rudňany
12%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
73%
Rudňany wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
97%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
88%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
70%
Rudňany 1+ goals
55%
Rudňany 2+ goals
19%
Rudňany 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
95%
Rudňany (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.77

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
88%
level
8%
Rudňany scores more
4%

Tatran Prešov at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Prešov vs Rudňany

Tatran Prešov beat Rudňany 7-2 in 3. liga - East on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at FC Pivovar Šariš in Veľký Šariš.