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Rudňany vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Rudňany
Rudňany
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
4/9/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 20Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany18%
×Draw17%
Tatran Prešov65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudňany
1.35
Tatran Prešov
2.69

Tatran Prešov creates 99% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rudňany
1.53
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Rudňany
2.60
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw
35%
Rudňany or Tatran Prešov
83%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
82%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+
7%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals
74%
Rudňany 2+ goals
39%
Rudňany 3+ goals
15%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
93%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
74%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)
21%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rudňany scores more
18%
level
17%
Tatran Prešov scores more
65%

Tatran Prešov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudňany vs Tatran Prešov

Tatran Prešov beat Rudňany 6-0 in 3. liga - East on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudňany in Rudňany.