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Tatran Prešov vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
7 – 0
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
7/31/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1FC Pivovar Šariš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Prešov90%
×Draw7%
Pokrok Krompachy3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
3.60
Pokrok Krompachy
0.53

Tatran Prešov creates 579% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
3.55
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.45
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
97%
Tatran Prešov or Pokrok Krompachy
93%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
10%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
76%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
97%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
86%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
67%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
41%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
10%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
97%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.60

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
90%
level
7%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
3%

Tatran Prešov at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Tatran Prešov 7–0 Pokrok Krompachy

Tatran Prešov beat Pokrok Krompachy 7-0 in 3. liga - East on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at FC Pivovar Šariš in Veľký Šariš.