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Pokrok Krompachy vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
3/12/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 16Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pokrok Krompachy17%
×Draw18%
Tatran Prešov65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pokrok Krompachy
1.20
Tatran Prešov
2.50

Tatran Prešov creates 108% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Pokrok Krompachy
1.23
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Pokrok Krompachy
2.23
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pokrok Krompachy ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pokrok Krompachy or draw
35%
Pokrok Krompachy or Tatran Prešov
82%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
83%

Winning margin

Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
6%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
70%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
34%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
12%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
92%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
71%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
20%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pokrok Krompachy at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pokrok Krompachy attack 1.23 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Pokrok Krompachy scores more
17%
level
18%
Tatran Prešov scores more
65%

Tatran Prešov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pokrok Krompachy vs Tatran Prešov

Tatran Prešov beat Pokrok Krompachy 4-0 in 3. liga - East on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FK Pokrok SEZ Krompachy in Krompachy.