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Tatran Prešov vs Pohronie — 2. liga 2019

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pohronie
Pohronie
5/19/20232. liga2. liga · Round 30Štadión Ličartovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tatran Prešov61%
×Draw22%
Pohronie17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
1.83
Pohronie
0.83

Tatran Prešov creates 120% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
1.95
Pohronie
1.16

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.50
Pohronie
1.71

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Pohronie+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Pohronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
83%
Tatran Prešov or Pohronie
78%
Draw or Pohronie
39%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
36%
Pohronie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
84%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
54%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
28%
Pohronie 1+ goals
56%
Pohronie 2+ goals
20%
Pohronie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
79%
Pohronie (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.50 · 44 matches

Pohronie away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 1.95 + Pohronie defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pohronie attack 1.16 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
61%
level
22%
Pohronie scores more
17%

Tatran Prešov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Tatran Prešov 3–0 Pohronie

Tatran Prešov beat Pohronie 3-0 in 2. liga on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Ličartovce in Ličartovce.