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Pohronie vs Tatran Prešov — 2. liga 2019

Pohronie
Pohronie
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
9/1/20232. liga2. liga · Round 6Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pohronie37%
×Draw25%
Tatran Prešov38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohronie
1.42
Tatran Prešov
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pohronie
1.78
Tatran Prešov
1.50

allows per match

Pohronie
1.41
Tatran Prešov
1.05

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw
62%
Pohronie or Tatran Prešov
75%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
63%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+
17%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals
76%
Pohronie 2+ goals
41%
Pohronie 3+ goals
17%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
77%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
43%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)
49%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.78 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tatran Prešov attack 1.50 + Pohronie defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pohronie scores more
37%
level
25%
Tatran Prešov scores more
38%

Tatran Prešov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pohronie vs Tatran Prešov

Tatran Prešov beat Pohronie 3-0 in 2. liga on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Žiar nad Hronom in Žiar nad Hronom.