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Tatran Prešov vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
CANC
12:30
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
11/7/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 16Štadión Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Prešov77%
×Draw13%
Mladosť Kalša10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
3.21
Mladosť Kalša
1.14

Tatran Prešov creates 182% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
3.55
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.45
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
90%
Tatran Prešov or Mladosť Kalša
87%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
23%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
58%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
96%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
82%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
60%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
68%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
32%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
88%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 3.21

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
77%
level
13%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
10%

Tatran Prešov at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tatran Prešov face Mladosť Kalša (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Tatran Prešov hosting Mladosť Kalša. Match starts November 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tatran Prešov host Mladosť Kalša at Štadión Tatran.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.