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Mladosť Kalša vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
5/1/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 23Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša31%
×Draw20%
Tatran Prešov49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
1.82
Tatran Prešov
2.33

Tatran Prešov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
51%
Mladosť Kalša or Tatran Prešov
80%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
69%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
15%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
84%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
54%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
27%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
90%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
67%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
38%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
31%
level
20%
Tatran Prešov scores more
49%

Tatran Prešov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladosť Kalša vs Tatran Prešov

Tatran Prešov beat Mladosť Kalša 4-0 in 3. liga - East on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.