Tatran Prešov 5–0 Milénium: Result & Stats

Tatran Prešov

FT

5 – 0

Milénium

8/29/2020

3. liga - East · East - 6Štadión Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tatran Prešov86%

×Draw10%

Milénium4%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran PrešovExpected goals in this matchMilénium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.15

0.60

Tatran Prešov

3.15

Milénium

0.60

Tatran Prešov creates 425% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

3.55

creates per match

0.75

0.45

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Tatran Prešov

3.55

Milénium

0.75

allows per match

Tatran Prešov

0.45

Milénium

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Milénium+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Milénium →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw

96%

Tatran Prešov or Milénium

90%

Draw or Milénium

14%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

68%

Milénium wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

96%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

81%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

59%

Milénium 1+ goals

45%

Milénium 2+ goals

12%

Milénium 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

95%

Milénium (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Milénium away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Milénium defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.15

Milénium attack 0.75 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more

86%

level

10%

Milénium scores more

4%

Tatran Prešov at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff