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Milénium vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Milénium
Milénium
CANC
14:00
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
4/18/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 21Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium16%
×Draw17%
Tatran Prešov66%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milénium
1.23
Tatran Prešov
2.60

Tatran Prešov creates 111% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Milénium
1.29
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Milénium
2.43
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Milénium or draw
34%
Milénium or Tatran Prešov
83%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
84%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+
6%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals
71%
Milénium 2+ goals
35%
Milénium 3+ goals
13%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
92%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
73%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)
20%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Milénium scores more
16%
level
17%
Tatran Prešov scores more
66%

Tatran Prešov at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Milénium vs Tatran Prešov — Match Preview

Milénium face Tatran Prešov on April 18, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Milénium host Tatran Prešov at Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.