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Tatran Prešov vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 2. liga 2019

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
8/2/20242. liga2. liga · Round 2Futbalový štadión MŠK TESLA Stropkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tatran Prešov58%
×Draw24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
1.73
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.84

Tatran Prešov creates 106% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
1.98
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.51
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
82%
Tatran Prešov or Lokomotíva Zvolen
76%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
42%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
33%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
82%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
52%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
25%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
57%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
21%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
76%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.51 · 43 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 1.98 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
58%
level
24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
18%

Tatran Prešov at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Prešov vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Tatran Prešov beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 3-0 in 2. liga on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MŠK TESLA Stropkov in Stropkov.