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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Tatran Prešov — 2. liga 2019

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
3/1/20252. liga2. liga · Round 15Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen33%
×Draw26%
Tatran Prešov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.25
Tatran Prešov
1.44

Tatran Prešov creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47
Tatran Prešov
1.51

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.37
Tatran Prešov
1.02

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
59%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Tatran Prešov
74%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
67%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
14%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
13%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
76%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
42%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
44%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.47 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tatran Prešov attack 1.51 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
33%
level
26%
Tatran Prešov scores more
41%

Tatran Prešov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Tatran Prešov

Tatran Prešov beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 1-0 in 2. liga on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.