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Tatran Prešov vs Komárno — 2. liga 2019

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Komárno
Komárno
11/5/20222. liga2. liga · Round 16Štadión Ličartovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tatran Prešov57%
×Draw24%
Komárno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
1.73
Komárno
0.89

Tatran Prešov creates 94% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 71 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
1.95
Komárno
1.27

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.50
Komárno
1.51

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Komárno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
81%
Tatran Prešov or Komárno
76%
Draw or Komárno
43%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
32%
Komárno wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
82%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
52%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
25%
Komárno 1+ goals
59%
Komárno 2+ goals
22%
Komárno 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
75%
Komárno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.50 · 44 matches

Komárno away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.51 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 1.95 + Komárno defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Komárno attack 1.27 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
57%
level
24%
Komárno scores more
19%

Tatran Prešov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Tatran Prešov 1–2 Komárno

Komárno beat Tatran Prešov 2-1 in 2. liga on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Ličartovce in Ličartovce.