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Komárno vs Tatran Prešov — 2. liga 2019

Komárno
Komárno
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
8/19/20232. liga2. liga · Round 4Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Komárno43%
×Draw26%
Tatran Prešov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
1.41
Tatran Prešov
1.16

Komárno creates 22% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

creates per match

Komárno
1.76
Tatran Prešov
1.50

allows per match

Komárno
0.82
Tatran Prešov
1.05

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
69%
Komárno or Tatran Prešov
74%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
57%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
20%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
76%
Komárno 2+ goals
41%
Komárno 3+ goals
17%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
69%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
32%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
58%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 1.76 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tatran Prešov attack 1.50 + Komárno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Komárno scores more
43%
level
26%
Tatran Prešov scores more
31%

Komárno at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Komárno 3 – 1 Tatran Prešov

Komárno beat Tatran Prešov 3-1 in 2. liga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.