Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tatran Prešov vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
4/1/20232. liga2. liga · Round 23Štadión Ličartovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tatran Prešov63%
×Draw21%
Dubnica16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
1.94
Dubnica
0.85

Tatran Prešov creates 128% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
1.98
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.51
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
84%
Tatran Prešov or Dubnica
79%
Draw or Dubnica
37%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
38%
Dubnica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
86%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
58%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
30%
Dubnica 1+ goals
57%
Dubnica 2+ goals
21%
Dubnica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
80%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.51 · 43 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 1.98 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
63%
level
21%
Dubnica scores more
16%

Tatran Prešov at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Tatran Prešov 3–1 Dubnica

Tatran Prešov beat Dubnica 3-1 in 2. liga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Ličartovce in Ličartovce.