Dubnica vs Tatran Prešov — 2. liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 43+ matches
Dubnica33%
Tatran Prešov41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tatran Prešov creates 14% more chances
Season form · 56 home / 43 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dubnica ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dubnica at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches
Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dubnica attack 1.41 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21
Tatran Prešov attack 1.51 + Dubnica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Tatran Prešov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Petržalka
Liptovský Mikuláš
Malženice
Pohronie
Zlaté Moravce
Inter Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava II
Šamorín
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Považská Bystrica
Žilina II
Slávia TU Košice
Púchov
Stará Ľubovňa
KomárnoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dubnica host Tatran Prešov on Saturday, 3 September 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the 2. liga 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Dubnica vs Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov beat Dubnica 3-0 in 2. liga on September 3, 2022.
Goals: K. Karaš (42'), J. Dolný (48', 70').
The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.