Tatran Prešov vs Družstevník Plavnica

Tatran Prešov

CANC

15:00

Družstevník Plavnica

6/20/2021

3. liga - East · East - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tatran Prešov80%

×Draw13%

Družstevník Plavnica8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran PrešovExpected goals in this matchDružstevník Plavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.81

Tatran Prešov

2.94

Družstevník Plavnica

0.81

Tatran Prešov creates 263% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

3.55

creates per match

1.17

0.45

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Tatran Prešov

3.55

Družstevník Plavnica

1.17

allows per match

Tatran Prešov

0.45

Družstevník Plavnica

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw

92%

Tatran Prešov or Družstevník Plavnica

87%

Draw or Družstevník Plavnica

20%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

60%

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

95%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

79%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

55%

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

56%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

19%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

91%

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.94

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more

80%

level

13%

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

8%

Tatran Prešov at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff