Družstevník Plavnica 2–1 Tatran Prešov

Družstevník Plavnica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tatran Prešov

6/12/2021

3. liga - East · East - 15Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica31%

×Draw22%

Tatran Prešov46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Družstevník PlavnicaExpected goals in this matchTatran Prešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.89

Družstevník Plavnica

1.52

Tatran Prešov

1.89

Tatran Prešov creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

2.78

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica

1.88

Tatran Prešov

2.78

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica

1.00

Tatran Prešov

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

Tatran Prešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw

54%

Družstevník Plavnica or Tatran Prešov

78%

Draw or Tatran Prešov

69%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

15%

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

78%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

45%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

20%

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

85%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

56%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

40%

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

31%

level

22%

Tatran Prešov scores more

46%

Tatran Prešov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff