Tatran Krásno 6–0 Rimavská Sobota: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

6 – 0

Rimavská Sobota

9/26/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 9Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Krásno61%

×Draw19%

Rimavská Sobota20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchRimavská Sobota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.35

Tatran Krásno

2.42

Rimavská Sobota

1.35

Tatran Krásno creates 79% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

2.23

creates per match

1.29

1.41

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

2.23

Rimavská Sobota

1.29

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.41

Rimavská Sobota

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Rimavská Sobota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

80%

Tatran Krásno or Rimavská Sobota

81%

Draw or Rimavská Sobota

39%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

39%

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

91%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

69%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

43%

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

74%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

39%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

75%

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Rimavská Sobota away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Rimavská Sobota defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

Rimavská Sobota attack 1.29 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

61%

level

19%

Rimavská Sobota scores more

20%

Tatran Krásno at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff