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Rimavská Sobota vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rimavská Sobota
Rimavská Sobota
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
5/21/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 24Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rimavská Sobota57%
×Draw21%
Tatran Krásno21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rimavská Sobota
2.02
Tatran Krásno
1.16

Rimavská Sobota creates 74% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota
2.00
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota
1.28
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw
79%
Rimavská Sobota or Tatran Krásno
79%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
43%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+
34%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals
87%
Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals
60%
Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals
33%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
69%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
32%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)
73%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.00 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more
57%
level
21%
Tatran Krásno scores more
21%

Rimavská Sobota at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rimavská Sobota vs Tatran Krásno

Tatran Krásno beat Rimavská Sobota 2-1 in 3. liga - Center on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách in Rimavská Sobota.